| MONDAY, December 1st |  The National Bureau of Economic Research announced today that the United States economy entered into recession in December 2007. The Bureau is recognized as the official source for dating the onset on recession in the U.S. Given payroll declines in every month so far this year, the recession comes as no surprise to many economists who believe it will last at least through the first half of 2009 and prove to be the worst downturn since WWII. | | The ISM manufacturing index fell to 36.2% in November from a level of 38.9% in October. The downward spiral in the manufacturing sector index is consistent with severe contraction not only in manufacturing activity but in the economy as a whole. The outlook is for more of the same until later next year. | | Construction spending fell 1.2% in October, more than an expected decline of 0.9%. However, the previous two months were upwardly revised to show a three-month annualized gain of 4.8%. Construction spending is 4.6% lower on the year, keeping in line with the downward trend that has been in place for over 2 years. | |
| TUESDAY, December 2nd | | Treasuries benefited from a flight-to-safety bid Tuesday amid corporate news that indicated worsening economic conditions and along with them, lower inflation. Also, anticipation that the Fed will begin purchasing Treasuries in substantial quantities as a less conventional policy response to unlock credit flows supported the bid. In late trading the 10-year note was up 19/32 to 109-13/32 to yield 2.67%. | |
| WEDNESDAY, December 3rd |  The MBA mortgage applications index surged 112.1% to 857.7% for the week ending November 28. The jump in applications was related to a half point decline in fixed mortgage rates. The purchase index was up 38.0% on the week but remains 22.2% below its year ago level. The refinance index soared over 200% last week and was up 37.7% from last year. It took awhile, but it appears as though mortgage rates finally have responded to the prolonged rally in the bond market. | | Like the official announcement that we are indeed in a recession, the conclusion of the Fed's beige book that economic activity weakened across all Federal Reserve Banking Districts in late October and November comes as no surprise. The Fed's survey confirmed declines in manufacturing, construction, retail and auto sales, consumer spending, employment and residential and commercial real estate activity. Lending activity contracted as standards tightened. Inflation eased significantly because of falling energy prices. This broad based and dismal assessment of the economy suggests the Fed will continue to lower rates and use whatever means available to them to help promote moderate economic growth over time. | |
| THURSDAY, December 4th | | Long-term fixed mortgage rates tumbled almost a half-point after the Fed said last week that it would buy $500 billion in securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed will also buy another $100 billion in direct debt issued by the GSEs. 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 5.53% this week compared to 5.97% last week according to Freddie Mac's mortgage market survey. Economists at Freddie Mac noted that mortgage applications doubled in the past week with refinancing applications almost tripling in response to the steep rate decline in rates. | |
| FRIDAY, December 5th | | The economy shed 533,000 jobs in November, much worse than an expected decline of 325,000. Moreover, downward revisions in the previous two months resulted in net loss of 199,000 more jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% last month from 6.5% in October. Payroll declines are accelerating. Two-thirds of the 1.9 million jobs lost so far this year were in the last three months. The outlook remains grim. Expect the economy to remain mired in recession through most of 2009. |
|
| Stock Market Close for the Week |
| Index | Latest | A Week Ago | Change | | DJIA | 8635.42 | 8829.04 | -193.62 or -2.19% | | NASDAQ | 1509.31 | 1535.57 | -26.26 or -1.71% |
|
| WEEK IN ADVANCE |
| With downside risks to the economy mounting, any talk of additional government stimulus will grab the attention of market players, economists and analysts. Data flows are light and toward the end of the week. The Treasury will sell more debt in the coming week and supply concerns could boost yields somewhat from multi-decade lows. |
| Key Interest Rates | Latest | 6 Mos Ago | 1 Yr Ago | | Prime Rate | 4.00 | 5.00 | 7.50 | | Fed Discount | 1.25 | 2.25 | 5.00 | | Fed Funds | 1.00 | 1.99 | 4.55 | | 11th District COF | 3.125 | 3.111 | 4.233 | | 10-Year Note | 2.70 | 3.98 | 3.97 | | 30-Year Treasury Bond | 3.13 | 4.68 | 4.43 | | 30-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) | 5.53 | 6.09 | 5.96 | | 15-Yr Fixed (FHLMC) | 5.33 | 5.65 | 5.65 | | 1-Yr Adj (FHLMC) | 5.02 | 5.06 | 5.46 | | 6-Mo Libor (FNMA) | 2.59125 | 2.91063 | 4.91000 | | Sources: IBC' s Money Fund Report; Bank Rate Monitor; Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco |
|
|
 Upward pressure on interest rates
Downward pressure on interest rates
 No pressure to change interest rates
News worthy
|
No comments:
Post a Comment